A hybrid model for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electricity price forecasting

A Hybrid Model for Gefcom2014 Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting a Hybrid Model for Gefcom2014 Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

This paper provides detailed information on Team Poland’s approach in the electricity price forecasting track of GEFCom2014. A new hybrid model is proposed, consisting of four major blocks: point forecasting, pre-filtering, quantile regression modeling and post-processing. This universal model structure enables independent development of a single block, without affecting performance of the rema...

Dynamic Hybrid Model for Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

Accurate forecasting tools are essential in the operation of electric power systems, especially in deregulated electricity markets. Electricity price forecasting is necessary for all market participants to optimize their portfolios. In this paper we propose a hybrid method approach for short-term hourly electricity price forecasting. The paper combines statistical techniques for pre-processing ...

GEFCOM 2014 - Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a wellknown and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient Boosting Regression. The method was tested on data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 with a year long rolling window forecast. The results from th...

Application of a New Hybrid Method for Day-Ahead Energy Price Forecasting in Iranian Electricity Market

Abstract- In a typical competitive electricity market, a large number of short-term and long-term contracts are set on basis of energy price by an Independent System Operator (ISO). Under such circumstances, accurate electricity price forecasting can play a significant role in improving the more reasonable bidding strategies adopted by the electricity market participants. So, they cannot only r...

A Hybrid Intelligent System For Forecasting Gasoline Price